This week is not expected to bring fundamental shifts significantly impacting currency exchange rates.
This information comes from Unex Bank Treasury Operations Department Director and Board Member Hanna Zolotko.
“The market remains broadly stable this week, with no long-term rate trends yet observed,” commented Zolotko.
Rates during August 11−15 exhibited relative calm, posting a minor increase of 0.15% with minimal swings. These five trading days passed without signs of a sharp directional move or heightened volatility.
The official rates last week stood as follows:
August 11 — 41.3895 UAH/$;
August 12 — 41.4490 UAH/$;
August 13 — 41.4268 UAH/$;
August 14 — 41.5149 UAH/$;
August 15 — 41.4500 UAH/$.
Cash Market
Price changes at bank branches throughout the previous week were mostly technical in nature, not accompanied by sharp shocks or major fundamental events.
According to the expert, the narrow movement range indicates a lack of intense demand or supply, along with moderate market participant confidence. Daily variations were insignificant—rising by 1−2 kopiykas early in the week:
Monday’s range was 41.12−41.65 UAH/$;
Tuesday — 41.13−41.66 UAH/$;
Wednesday — 41.14−41.68 UAH/$;
Thursday dipped to 41.13−41.65 UAH/$;
Friday hit the week’s low at 41.06−41.60 UAH/$.
The week was defined by steadiness and minor adjustments—rates stayed within a confined band without signals of systematic pressure.
Interbank Market
Interbank trading operated within tight limits but with noticeable intraday spikes. The general weekly trend was essentially flat.
The period commenced with hryvnia appreciation: from 41.41 UAH/$ to 41.36 UAH/$, peaking at 41.46 UAH/$ during Monday. Tuesday saw the dollar strengthen by 10 kopiykas: 41.37 UAH/$ in morning sessions versus 41.47 UAH/$ by evening, reaching a midday high of 41.49 UAH/$.
Wednesday’s highest quotes hit 41.56 UAH/$ midday, starting at 41.48 UAH/$ and closing at 41.3 UAH/$—a daily dollar depreciation of 18 kopiykas. Thursday’s quotes opened at 41.41 UAH/$, fluctuating down to 41.34 UAH/$ and up to 41.51 UAH/$, yet concluded unchanged at 41.41 UAH/$. Friday’s interbank market trend featured the dollar weakening by 20 kopiykas: from 41.42 UAH/$ to 41.22 UAH/$.
“The week involved technical variations with a slight hryvnia gain of 5 kopiykas; the market remains moderately liquid and devoid of systematic strain signs,” Zolotko noted.
The National Bank reduced its currency intervention volume last week by nearly 28% compared to the previous week. Per the regulator’s official report, total NBU FX sales from August 11-15 amounted to $607.8 million—the lowest figure over the previous 4 months. The regulator also managed to purchase a minor $0.06 million.
Forecast for This Week
“Amid anticipated seasonal growth in FX supply and the National Bank’s managed flexibility regime, market participants can expect balanced conditions this week: fluctuations should remain below 1.5% of current levels. Presently, no fundamental shock exists likely to push rates beyond this range,” the expert concluded.
