What will happen to the dollar and euro this week? Exact forecast of the banker, exchange rate and calculation of depositsIn this issue, we analyze the fresh currency exchange rate forecast from Globus Bank’s banker Taras Lesovyi and the main factors affecting the Ukrainian financial market this week. Let’s start with the events that influence the exchange rate, and then move on to specific figures. It is important to understand one thing: the euro’s dynamics this week depend not only on the situation in Ukraine. The ratio of the euro and the dollar on the world market plays a huge role.Read also
What to expect from the exchange rate this week — the banker’s opinion
Therefore, euro fluctuations may be somewhat wider than dollar fluctuations. However, according to the forecast, they should still not go beyond the range we just named.Even if the rate stays within the usual limits, it does not mean an absence of risks, assures Globus Bank’s banker Taras Lesovyi. Demand for currency on the interbank market may increase due to the activity of importers — especially those companies that purchase energy resources and fuel.Energy traders will try to accumulate currency in advance to finance future contracts. And the reason here is not panic, but cold calculation: the instability of the global oil market, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, the unpredictability of relations between the United States and Iran.Read also
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The logic is simple. If political tension subsides, oil quotes may go down. But a new escalation can quickly bring the market back to growth. And since there is no clear long-term price benchmark now, Ukrainian importers are hedging — buying currency in advance, not waiting for a worse scenario.Another risk, which is less talked about but significantly affects the wallet, is domestic inflation. According to Taras Lesovyi, military destruction increases business expenses: repairs, alternative electricity supply, transportation, restoration of production processes. And business is forced to include a significant part of these costs in the price of goods and services.Fuel creates separate pressure. Its rising cost increases logistics costs in almost all sectors. And if fuel prices continue to rise, some businesses may simultaneously raise prices by 5-7% — not only to cover current expenses but also in anticipation of possible future price increases.Under such conditions, inflation in August may be 1-1.3% per month. For comparison, in July, prices rose by approximately 0.2%. And in annual terms, the indicator may accelerate to 8.8-9.2%.There is also a restraining factor — the seasonal supply of agricultural products. It will partially slow down the general price increase. However, this factor will not be able to fully compensate for more expensive fuel, logistics, and businesses’ war-related losses.Now for the specific figures. During this week of August, the dollar exchange rate will most likely remain within UAH 44.6-45 per dollar, is convinced Globus Bank’s banker Taras Lesovyi.The euro exchange rate is in the range of UAH 51-52.5 per euro.More specifically on the corridors: dollar on the interbank market — UAH 44.6-45.2, euro — UAH 51-52.5.In the cash market, the dollar is UAH 44.8-45.2, the euro — the same range, UAH 51-52.5.
Tetyana BerehovaCorrespondent-editorBased on materials from: Finance.ua# CurrencySpace for your advertisement