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Photo: NBU
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is expected to maintain its key policy rate at 15% per annum on July 30, as most bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine believe there are insufficient grounds to alter monetary policy.
“Most likely, the NBU will not change the current monetary parameters. According to our estimates, the key policy rate will remain at 15%, and the rate on three-month certificates of deposit will be 18.5%,” stated Dmytro Zamotayev, Director of the Retail Business Department at Globus Bank.
In his opinion, the regulator has ample reasons to adhere to a conservative policy, as the current slowdown in inflation is largely due to the seasonal decrease in agricultural product prices and does not yet indicate a stable trend.
Zamotayev noted that Ukraine recorded deflation of 0.1% in June, and for July, the change in consumer prices might be close to zero or range from minus 0.1% to minus 0.3%.
However, in August-September, inflationary risks could intensify due to preparations for the heating season, increased demand for energy resources and equipment imports, and a potential rise in currency demand, the banker believes.
He cited instability in oil prices, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the consequences of attacks on energy infrastructure, and significant reliance of state finances on international aid as additional risks.
Under such a scenario, average rates on hryvnia deposits in early August are expected to remain close to current levels: around 13% per annum for three-month deposits, 14.5% for six-month deposits, and 14% for nine-to-twelve-month deposits.
Oleg Trybulkin, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board and Head of Risk Management at A-Bank, also anticipates the key policy rate to stay at 15%.
“The main argument is the NBU’s own outlook: in its April macro forecast, the regulator aimed to maintain the current rate level until the second quarter of 2027. Since the last meeting, there haven’t been significant enough changes to justify deviating from this trajectory now,” he noted.
Trybulkin believes that better overall inflation dynamics, growth in international reserves, confirmation of further IMF financing, and relative stabilization in the energy sector could provide the National Bank with grounds to slightly improve its inflation forecast for 2026 or project a softer inflation trajectory compared to April expectations.
Meanwhile, when updating its macro forecast, the regulator must continue to consider the situation in the Middle East, he added.
Serhiy Kolodiy, Chief Macroeconomic Analysis Expert at Raiffeisen Bank’s Analytical Research Department, also predicts with high probability that the rate will remain at 15%.
“Inflation for June brought a rather unexpected positive surprise – it decreased from 8.2% to 7.2% and turned out to be even lower than the NBU’s last quarterly forecast of 7.4%… Therefore, there are fewer arguments for raising the rate,” he explained.
Kolodiy does not expect significant changes in the NBU’s main macroeconomic forecasts. However, due to the consequences of massive shelling of ports and export infrastructure, the regulator might slightly worsen the economic growth forecast, and due to increased currency interventions in recent weeks, the forecast for international reserves could be affected.
Serhiy Hnezdilov, Head of the International Markets and Money Circulation Department at RadaBank, considers both maintaining the rate at 15% and raising it by 0.5 percentage points as possibilities.
He cited inflationary risks related to oil prices, transportation, and goods as the main argument for a rate hike. A compromise decision could be a 0.25 percentage point increase, but the NBU has not used such a step for a long time, Hnezdilov noted.
As reported, since March 2025, the NBU kept the key policy rate at 15.5% per annum for six consecutive meetings, lowered it to 15% in January 2026, and has maintained it at this level three times since then.